The Race for the Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet

Several countries are looking at enhancing their air force with a new generation of fighter jets – While for some it seems to be going smoother, for others it is proving to be a real challenge

As the war in Ukraine has proven, having the latest military technology can truly be decisive in the battlefield, both on offense and on defence. Air dominance is also a crucial aspect of modern warfare.

Experts have claimed that one of the reasons the Russians bogged down in Ukraine was because they were not able to achieve air superiority and hence their fighter jets could not provide sufficient cover for the ground forces.

Therefore, the Russians mainly had to rely on long distance strikes with their bombers, which certainly caused a lot of damage to the Ukrainian cities, as the fighter jets were simply susceptible to being shot down by air defences.

Fighter jets have also played a substantial role in Ukraine’s defence, with the country’s air force using F-16s and Mirages to intercept and down incoming Russian missiles.

With this being said, it is totally understandable why the world’s greatest military powers are now even more eager to develop the next generation of fighter jets, as their role on the battlefield has been proven once again in modern warfare. Achieving air superiority continues to be essential in dominating your adversaries and therefore having the latest aircraft built can be a great deterrence.

The Americans Want to Continue Dominating

The United States of America has longed prided itself with its military, with aircrafts being used by most branches of its armed forces. Of course, when it comes to fighter jets, it is the Air Force, but also the Navy and even the Marines that use such aircraft, whether it is the F-35s, F-16s, F-15s, F/A-18 Super Hornets.

President Donald Trump announced in March that the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance initiative (NGAD), will go forward, with its main objective, the sixth-generation fighter jet, receiving the name F-47. Boeing was awarded the engineering, development and manufacturing contract for the aircraft, worth over 20 billion USD.

It will be the successor of the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 fighter jet, with the US intending to phase out the McDonnell Douglas F-15E Strike Eagle in time. The first flight of the F-47 is set to take place in 2028, with most details regarding the design and construction being kept secret. Additionally, the new jet is set to become operational by 2029, with the purpose of being integrated into the armed forces in the early 2030’s.

Air Force Chief of Staff, David Allvin has said that the F-47 will have a "significantly longer range, more advanced stealth, be more sustainable and have higher availability than the fifth-generation fighters" (F-22 and F-35). Also, it will cost less to manufacture than the F-22 and it will necessitate less manpower. Furthermore, just like the fifth-generation jets, it will operate with accompanying drones.

If the F-47 is set to overtake the F-22 as the main “traditional” dogfighter plane of the US military, the current US administration is looking into potentially upgrading the current Lockheed Martin F-35 multirole aircraft as well.

Back in the spring, when visiting the Middle East, the US President floated the idea of an F-55, a two-engine version of a F-35. The new potential aircraft would require a substantial redesign of the current F-35 airframe, resulting essentially in a new plane.

The F-55 would however only be taken into consideration if the price is right, according to POTUS. It is important to note the potential new jet wouldn’t be considered a sixth-generation fighter, but a fifth-generation plus fighter.

Anyways, the US is clearly one of the leading countries when it comes to developing and constructing such new aircrafts, with the purpose being clearly to stay ahead of the curve, especially of the Chinese, and continue being the world’s leading airpower.

The FCAS Stalemate

Over on the other side of the Atlantic, the Europeans are also working on similar projects. Recently, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) has been hitting the headlines due to the misunderstanding between the Germans and the French with regards to how shall they proceed with the further development of the aircraft.

Work on the FCAS project initially started in 2017, when Germany and France had the ambition of building a sixth-generation fighter jet. Spain also joined the development of the FCAS in 2019.

As Phase 1B is coming to an end, involving mainly scientific research, the participating governments and companies must now negotiate the contract for Phase 2, which involves the first test flights.

During these negotiations, problems have arisen in between the French and German governments, but also in between the two companies representing them in this project, Dassault Aviation for France and Airbus for Germany.

Dassault Aviation has a rich history in developing aircraft and fighter jets, producing models such as Rafale and Mirage. In consequence, the company, being supported by the French government as well, has asked for a larger share of the developing the FCAS.

The international press has reported that Dassault is aiming for an 80%, hence contradicting the initial plan of a 50/50 joint venture with the Germans. In essence, the French feel the want to have a bigger say in how the construction and further development of the plane.

This is something that has upset Berlin and now Germany is looking for alternatives. Despite there being a quasi-agreement in July with French to resolve their differences this fall, it is looking increasingly likely that there will be a divorce.

France is feeling bullish about itself. A government official has conveyed the following message to the press last week: "If we fail to reach an agreement on FCAS, there is no need to worry about the fact that France has already built, knows how to build, and will build a fighter jet alone."

It does appear that another sticking point is the deadline for the FCAS. France wants to replace its current with the FCAS by 2040, this being a priority as the country’s air fleet is part of its nuclear deterrent.

In the scenario of France going its own way, this would be an eerily similar course of action to the Eurofighter Typhoon project. The French dropped out of that project after disagreements about the design with their European partners. Therefore, Dassault ended up building the Rafale fighter jet, while the British, Germans, Italians and Spanish successfully developed the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Germany seeking alternatives

Thomas Pretzl, head of the workers' council at Airbus Defence and Space, has stated that Germany has the capacity to build the aircraft on its own, or with other partners.

It seems that behind the closed doors, the Germans are going on a charm offensive to try persuading other countries to join them in the development. The Chancelor Friedrich Merz visited Madrid this past week, meeting with the Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez. The two leaders have claimed that there is no dissent between them.

According to multiple sources, the United Kingdom seems to be a priority for Germany when it comes to attracting new partners. However, there is a major issue with attracting the UK.

Alongside Italy and Japan, the UK is already involved in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a sixth-generation fighter jet expected to enter service by 2035. The project is currently still in the research phase, with formal development set to begin anytime. Also, the first test flights are set to take place by 2027.

It is highly unlikely that the British will enter two such projects simultaneously, that are also very costly. Theoretically, the Germans could end up joining GCAP, however it is not something that Berlin seems hellbent on doing.

Instead, the current strategy of the Germans is to try to convince another partner capable of developing an aircraft, such as Sweden. The Swedes have a strong aviation industry, with country developing the Grippen fighter jets through Saab.

Despite the German attempt to coopt them, the Swedish Defence Minister, Pal Jonson, has stated that his country is in no rush to decide on its future fighter jet. More exactly, he claims that any decision would be made somewhere between 2028 and 2030.

In a meeting last week with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorious, Jonson has doubled down on Sweden’s autonomous desire with regards to its air industry: “Maintaining our design capabilities is very, very important for us, because we can tailor according to our operational needs.”

With all of this being said, there is hope for the Germans that they will be able in the end to convince the French to stick to the FCAS. Former defence minister Sebastien Lecornu has been names as the new Prime Minister by President Emmanuel Macron. There is still the possibility that he could push Dassault into compromising on the FCAS.

China and Russia are also working on their own respective jets

China seems to be in a very good position when it comes to the race for building the first sixth-generation fighter jet. The Chengdu J-36 is believed to have been spotted in a flight last December, raising concerns that it could become operational sooner, rather than later.

Also, last December the Shenyang J-50 was spotted in what is believed to be a test flight. As opposed to the J-36, the J-50 has a lighter design, with smaller tailless “lambada-wings”, with the J-36 having a tailless ‘diamond-wing” design.

Russia is also working on the Mikoyan PAK DP, also known MiG-41. From public information, it does not appear that the Russians are as advanced as other countries already mentioned. Supposedly, the aim is for the MiG-41 to replace the MiG-30 in the Russian Aerospace Forces by the mid-2030s.

It remains to be seen which country will produce the first operational sixth-generation fighter jet and how effective it will be. In any case, for the next couple of decades, all of these models, should they come to fruition, will plan an important role in military strategy and in the balance of geopolitical power throughout the globe.